Who the stats say you should be following at the Genesis Scottish Open

As a field featuring some of the biggest names in golf assembles for the upcoming test at the Genesis Scottish Open, we take a closer look at who has a history of performing well around The Renaissance Club, and what sort of player can win.

The Genesis Scottish Open has made its home at Renaissance for the past four years, producing iconic championship moments and plenty of play-off drama. But what does it take to play well on Scotland's Golf Coast?

We've delved into the stats from the past four years to look at players who have had success at The Renaissance Club, measuring that success by the metric of strokes better than field average (strokes gained).

Who has had the most success at Renaissance?

The first way we sought to measure success at Renaissance was by looking at the strokes gained leaders (that have a minimum of eight rounds completed) over the last four years. The results showed why Xander Schauffele is defending champion this week, standing above the rest with an average of 2.67 strokes gained over the field in the two editions in which he has played.

Tommy Fleetwood, with an average of 2.17 strokes gained over the field average, is the only other player who has gained more than two strokes over his competitors, accumulated over 12 rounds in three events. He's been statistically the best golfer at Renaissance over the last three editions, missing out in a play-off in 2020, finishing in a tie for 26th in 2021, and a tie for fourth in 2022.

Looking at players who have competed in every edition, Matt Fitzpatrick leads the way with an average of 1.90 strokes gained, which is 0.25 strokes better on average per round than next placed Thomas Detry. The two men both had their best results in this tournament at the same time, finding themselves tied at the top after 72 holes with Min Woo Lee in 2021, but ultimately lost out in a play-off to the Australian. Fitzpatrick is also tied with Schauffele for strokes gained over the last two editions of the tournament, but his overall average is lower due to him having played all four years.

Interestingly, of that list of impressive performers there is only one Scottish Open winner among them - Schauffele - but Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Detry have all been part of play-offs at the East Lothian venue, beaten out to the title at the sudden-death stage.

The next best in strokes gained is Tyrrell Hatton (1.56 average), whose best finish at Renaissance is a tie for 14th among three top 25s, while Lucas Herbert (1.52) was tied fourth in both 2020 and 2021.

*Table shows total strokes gained per year, and then the average per round at the end. Table shows players in the field this week that have played more than eight rounds.

Consistent strokes gained success

Consistency matters too. The list above shows the overall strokes gained leaders and their averages over the last four years, but there are some players on that list that have had one disappointing year among their successful results.

To consider success at Renaissance, it also makes sense to consider consistency - and those who have had positive strokes gained in each edition they have contested. Of the players in the field this week, there are only three other players not in the list above who fall into that category, taking the total to nine players in the last four years.

Joining Schauffele, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Detry, Hatton and Adrian Otaegui in those statistics are Rafa Cabrera Bello, Mike Lorenzo-Vera, and Connor Syme.

Success in results

In addition to strokes gained, it wouldn't be right to ignore pure championship results over that same time period, too.

Unsurprisingly, counting only players in the field this week, Schauffele (1st, 10th), Fleetwood, Detry, Fitzpatrick, and Herbert all have two top-tens apiece. Hatton is the only outlier - with a tie for 14th, 18th and 24th, while the addition to that list is two-time Major Champion Justin Thomas, who had top tens in 2019 and 2021. Jamie Donaldson also has a solid record in this contest, with top tens in 2019 and 2022 - the latter of which helped him earn a spot at The Open in 2021.

*table shows players with multiple top tens at the Genesis Scottish Open

What do the winners at The Renaissance Club have in common?

Scrutinising the numbers further, there is one particular statistic that all four of the most recent winners of the Scottish Open have excelled in during their victories at Renaissance Club.

On their way to lifting the title, all four men finished their winning week ranked inside the top three for strokes gained tee to green: Schauffele was ranked first, Lee ranked third, Aaron Rai ranked second and Bernd Wiesberger ranked third.

It’s also true of the players who made it into a play-off for the title. In 2019, Wiesberger defeated Frenchman Benjamin Hebert in a play-off, but Hebert had actually played better than Wiesberger tee to green throughout the week - ranking second. Fleetwood ranked first in those statistics but was beaten in a play-off against Rai in 2020, and in 2021 Detry was ranked fifth in strokes gained tee to green before he lost against Lee.

The only anomaly is Fitzpatrick. When he finished tied at the top, he was ranked 32nd for both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained approach and 77th for strokes gained around the green, His big positive that week was his putting, where he ranked third. Conversely, in his tie for sixth last year, he was 22nd for strokes gained tee to green, 83rd for strokes gained approach, 25th strokes gained around the green, and 30th for strokes gained putting. The only thing consistent across his performances is his par four scoring, ranking sixth in 2019, 2021 and 2022.

Looking at the strokes gained statistics, all four winners were also either ranked inside the top ten for strokes gained approach (Schauffele and Wiesberger), or inside the top 12 for strokes gained around the green (Lee and Rai).

Who has the best Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats at Renaissance?

Statistically, Rory McIlroy has been the most consistent across this particular stat over the last five years of competition, and is the only player in this field to have been inside the top ten for Strokes Gained Tee to Green at Renaissance on three occasions in that timeframe. In fact, he’s done it in each of his appearances – ranking first, second and eighth, which translated into second in 2018, tied ninth in 2019 and tied second in 2022..

After McIlroy, there are just two other players in the field this week who have ranked inside the top ten more than once in this statistic. Molinari was ranked second during his victory in 2018 and sixth during his tied ninth finish last year. Meanwhile, Shane Lowry was seventh in 2019, and first during his triumph at Wentworth in 2022.

What about Jon Rahm?

Who is the best player from tee to green on Tour right now?

It begs the question: If the winners of the past four Scottish Open have all had a brilliant week from tee to green, who tops those stats at the moment heading into this year's Rolex Series event?

On the DP World Tour, Adrian Meronk leads the way in this statistic, followed by Otaegui and Jordan Smith. Nicolai Højgaard, Thorbjørn Olesen, Yannik Paul and Edoardo Molinari - all in the field this week - are also inside the top ten. Meanwhile, noting his recent performances here, Detry has been primarily playing on the PGA TOUR this year but in his most recent start on the DP World Tour - the Soudal Open - he ranked sixth for strokes gained tee to green.

On the PGA TOUR, World Number One Scottie Scheffler dominates this field, with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay rounding out the top five. Also in the top ten? Fleetwood, ranked seventh, and Hatton, ranked ninth. Meanwhile, Schauffele is ranked 11th.

So who should you watch out for this week at Renaissance?

With all that considered, there is just one player who has multiple top tens, has gained over two strokes over the field in all contests, has ranked inside the top 20 in strokes gained tee to green statistics at Renaissance more than once, has positive strokes gained in every tournament played and is currently ranked inside the top ten for that statistic on Tour: Tommy Fleetwood.

Fleetwood missed the cut in his last start out on the PGA TOUR, but in his two events prior finished second at the RBC Canadian Open, and in a tie for fifth at the U.S. Open. With two weeks off, the Englishman will be hoping to return to Scotland refreshed for an event in which he has a history of performing well.

Defending champion Schauffele also fits the bill other than being one place outside the top ten on Tour, currently ranked 11th. Arriving in great form, Schauffele hasn't finished outside the top 25 in his last nine events, which includes a tie for tenth at the U.S Open among five top tens.