As the flagship event of the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship has been one of the hallmark events of the professional golf calendar for decades. In order to win this prestigious championship, players will need to successfully traverse three of the toughest holes on the course: the 1st, 3rd, and 15th.
One year ago, Billy Horschel became the first American winner of this event since Arnold Palmer won at Royal St George’s in 1975. Success at the 15th was especially key for Horschel, as he birdied it in three of the last four rounds on his way to a one-shot victory.
We have examined these three holes – which we expect to be our Fortinet Threat Holes at Wentworth Club – and the test they provide for some of the world’s best players ahead of the fourth Rolex Series event of the season.
Hole 3
Difficulty Rank: 1st
The 3rd hole, a 459-yard par 4, traditionally plays to the highest score in relation to par on the course – plus-0.36. Less than 60 per cent of players find this fairway, with a miss carrying a relatively steep penalty of more than four-tenths of a stroke. The second shot at this hole is among the most valuable on the course: the average approach into this green is 184 yards, with a mere 40.3 per cent of players finding this green in two. That is the lowest green in regulation rate of any hole at Wentworth.
Things do not get much easier for players when they are on and around the green, either. Less than 27 per cent of players get up and-down here, and the average putts per green hit in regulation is 1.94 – both the second-toughest rates on the course. In last year’s final round, Horschel made one of the eight birdies all day on this hole, his first of seven in a brilliant closing 65.
Hole 1
Difficulty Rank: 2nd
This elite field will be greeted with a stern test to begin their rounds: the 1st hole averages more than one-third of a stroke over par, second toughest at Wentworth. What comes after the tee shot is where the opening hole separates itself statistically. On average, players are about 47 feet from the hole after their second shot, the worst average proximity you will find anywhere on this championship layout. From there, this hole yields the lowest scrambling percentage (28.0%) and highest putts-per-G.I.R. average (1.95) on the course.
At the 2021 BMW PGA, players made birdie on the first hole just 4.5 per cent of the time, the lowest rate of any hole here.
Hole 15
Difficulty Rank: 3rd
At more than 490 yards, the 15th is the longest par four on the scorecard this week. Arguably the toughest ball striking test on the entire course, this hole features the stiffest penalty for players who miss the fairway (0.53 strokes), while simultaneously giving the most value for extra yards off the tee.
Players then face an average approach shot of 197 yards, the longest on the course. Missing this green in two will cost players nearly three-quarters of a shot, on average, with only about 26 per cent of the field getting up and down. Last year, the 15th was one of two holes on the back nine that played over par for the week – the 13th being the other.
Players to Watch
Among those in the field this week, South African Dean Burmester has played best on these three key holes, averaging 0.27 strokes gained per hole played. His best result at Wentworth was a tie for ninth in 2017. Reigning U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick is not far behind, with an average of 0.26. Fitzpatrick has four top-20 finishes in his last five appearances at this championship.
World number three Rory McIlroy, who won this championship in 2014, has averaged about 0.10 strokes gained per hole at the 1st, 3rd and 15th in his career.
