Who the stats say you should be following at the BMW PGA Championship

by Camilla Tait Robb

As a field featuring some of the biggest names in European golf assembles for the BMW PGA Championship, we take a closer look at who has a history of performing well around Wentworth Club, and what a player needs to do well statistically to win.

Who has had the most success at Wentworth?

The first way we sought to measure success at Wentworth was by looking at the strokes gained leaders (that have played in a minimum of two contests and played at least seven rounds) over the last five years.

With an average of 3.98 strokes gained over the field in the two editions that he has played, Jon Rahm narrowly leads the pack thanks to consecutive runner-up finishes at Wentworth's West Course.

2021 Champion Billy Horschel is close behind, with an average of 0.92 strokes gained per round on his competitors, which has resulted in three top tens from three starts. He is just 0.02 strokes ahead of Rory McIlroy, who has also completed 11 rounds in the last five years and has two runner-up finishes among his results. In the field this week, they are the only three players who have an average of over three strokes gained per round on the field average.

Looking at players who have competed in every edition, defending champion Shane Lowry leads the way with an average of 0.65 strokes gained, which is 0.25 strokes better on average per round than next placed Matt Fitzpatrick, who boasts two top tens in the last five years. Lowry is the only player who can claim to have gained over one stroke in each edition. Lowry is also exactly tied with 2018 champion Francesco Molinari, who has played in four of the five years.

*Table shows total strokes gained per year, and then the average per round at the end. Table shows players in the field this week that have played more than seven rounds

Consistent strokes gained success

Consistency matters too. To consider success at Wentworth, it also makes sense to examine consistency - and those who have had positive strokes gained in each edition they have contested. Of the players in the field this week, there are only three other players not in the list above who fall into that category, taking the total to 12 players in the last five years.

Joining Rahm, Horschel, McIlroy, Lowry, Molinari, Hovland, Kawamura, Scott and Fitzpatrick in those statistics are Marcus Armitage, Joakim Lagergren and Victor Perez.

So what does that tell us?

Of the above list, there are just three players who have had positive strokes gained in each edition of the BMW PGA Championship they have played and have an average strokes gained of more than three strokes over the field average in that span: Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel, and Jon Rahm.

Horschel memorably won the tournament in 2021, which fits between a tied fourth place during his debut in 2019, and a tied ninth last year. Rahm finished second behind Danny Willett in his first appearance in 2019, and was the runner-up again last year - this time tied with McIlroy. That was McIlroy's second runner-up finish in three appearances, having also finished two behind Francesco Molinari in 2018. A ninth place in 2019 followed, but it's worth noting that prior to the course changes, McIlroy did win this tournament in 2014.

Success in results

In addition to strokes gained, it wouldn't be right to ignore pure championship results over that same time period, too.

Counting only players in the field this week, three have recorded top tens in three of the last five years: Rory McIlroy, Billy Horschel, and Rafa Cabrera Bello. Jon Rahm meanwhile, has second place finishes in both of his appearances.

For 2019 winner Danny Willett, 2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton and defending champion Shane Lowry, their victories count as their solitary top ten in the last five years. It is worth noting however, that Lowry hasn't finished worse than tied 17th in the last six years, including a tied sixth in 2017. Molinari also finished second that year, taking the Italian's tally to three top tens in the last six years.

*table shows players with multiple top tens at the BMW PGA Championship from 2018 - 2022

What do the winners at Wentworth have in common?

Scrutinising the numbers further, there are three particular stand-out statistics that all five of the most recent winners of the BMW PGA Championship have excelled in during their victories at Wentworth

On their way to lifting the title, four of the five men finished their winning week ranked inside the top two for strokes gained tee to green:

They also all finished inside the top three for par-four scoring. With four par threes and four par fives, it's interesting to note how much weight the par-four scoring carried when it came to true results.

Lastly, they excelled at limiting their mistakes. Shane Lowry didn't drop a shot on his way to his victory last year, and all five recent winners finished top alone or tied in this statistic: Molinari made two bogeys the entire week, while Willett, Hatton and Horschel all made five apiece.

Who has the best Strokes Gained: Tee to Green stats at Wentworth?

Statistically, Rory McIlroy has been the most consistent across this particular stat over the last five years of competition, and is the only player in this field to have been inside the top ten for Strokes Gained Tee to Green at Renaissance on three occasions in that timeframe. In fact, he’s done it in each of his appearances – ranking first, second and eighth, which translated into second in 2018, tied ninth in 2019 and tied second in 2022..

After McIlroy, there are just two other players in the field this week who have ranked inside the top ten more than once in this statistic. Molinari was ranked second during his victory in 2018 and sixth during his tied ninth finish last year. Meanwhile, Shane Lowry was seventh in 2019, and first during his triumph at Wentworth in 2022.

What about Jon Rahm or Billy Horschel? The Spaniard was ranked 1st for SG: Off the tee both times he has played, and inside the top 20 for strokes gained tee to green, ranking 18th in 2019 and 16th in 2022. Horschel meanwhile ranked 26th in that statistic in 2019, first during his win in 2021, and 25th last year.

*Table shows players who have been inside the top ten in strokes gained tee to green on more than one occasion

Who has the best par four scoring stats at Wentworth?

Arguably a toss up with multiple players recording multiple top tens in this stat, but Jon Rahm's record is pretty spectacular. In two editions, he's finished first and third in this category.

Table shows players who have been in the top ten for par four scoring at Wentworth on multiple occasions.

So who should you watch out for this week?

With all that considered, there is just one player who has multiple top tens, has gained over three strokes on the field on average, has been in the top ten for par four scoring twice and strokes gained tee to green at Wentworth on three occasions: Rory McIlroy.

With positive strokes gained in every tournament played over the last five years and currently ranked second on the PGA TOUR for strokes gained tee to green, the Northern Irishman will be relishing another chance at getting his hands back on the trophy he won in 2014.

Despite a back injury worry over at the PGA TOUR's Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago, the World Number Two put in a solid performance in Ireland last week ahead of the fourth Rolex Series of the year. He faltered somewhat with a closing 74, but the man who current sits at the top of the Race to Dubai Rankings in Partnership with Rolex arrives in Surrey optimistic as he looks to make it three consecutive Rolex Series victories in 2023 after his wins in Dubai and Scotland.

With all but strokes gained tee to green stats in his complete favour, Jon Rahm, and Billy Horschel for that matter, should not be ignored either. With the rough up and accuracy at a premium, Rahm's statistics at Wentworth off the tee might well prove crucial as he looks to make his third time the charm. While Rahm missed Ireland last week, Horschel impressed over the first three rounds following a recent tied fourth on the PGA Tour, but like McIlroy he faded on the final day. Still, with his love of this event evident and his record a great one, he'll also be hoping to add a to his first victory here.

Elsewhere, Shane Lowry has a near perfect résumé for Wentworth, and will be buoyed by a resurgence in form at last week's Horizon Irish Open. Along with Francesco Molinari and impressive results that stretch back further than the five years of strokes gained statistics we have available, there'd be little surprise if one of these past winners were up there again this week.