With just three events left in the 2017 Race to Dubai, it is the truly the business end of the season? With more than 22 million Euros up for grabs in Turkey, South Africa and Dubai, a lot could yet change in the Race to Dubai rankings presented by Rolex. But who can still win the season-long title? And which players can get into the top ten and share in the Bonus Pool? Here’s a quick question and answer to set the scene for the final stretch of events.
Who can still win the Race to Dubai?
Whilst Tommy Fleetwood has a lead of nearly one million points, there are 29 players still mathematically in with a chance of winning the Race to Dubai. The list stretches all the way to Lee Westwood, who currently holds the 29th spot in the rankings.
Who can still finish in the top ten?
Every player in the top 60 in the Race to Dubai has a mathematical chance of finishing the year in the top ten. Interestingly, having finished his year already, in a bid to recover from a year-long rib injury, Rory McIlroy will very likely drop out of the top ten. He currently sits in tenth, in the final spot eligible for a share of the five million dollar Bonus Pool, but with no cut in the final three events Henrik Stenson will almost certainly pass the World Number Nine. It will be just the second year since 2010 that McIlroy has finished outside the top ten in the end-of-season rankings, having finished 35th in 2013.
What chance do each of the main contenders in the Race to Dubai have of winning the title?
According to statistics, schedule and simulations of the next three week’s events, Tommy Fleetwood has an 87 per cent chance to lifting his first Race to Dubai title. Of those behind him in the rankings, Justin Rose has a six per cent chance despite sitting third currently, due to the fact he will tee it up this week in Turkey as well as the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. Sergio Garcia, currently second in the standings, is only playing in Dubai and therefore has a three per cent chance. Of the other main contenders, Hatton probability sits at two per cent, whilst Ross Fisher and Henrik Stenson are the only other two players with a chance greater than one per cent.
What does Tommy Fleetwood need to do this week to win the Race to Dubai?
Simply put, he needs a win to clinch the title this week. A victory at the Turkish Airlines Open would move the Englishman to around 5.1 million points. That finish, plus Tyrrell Hatton finishing tied fourth or worse, would be enough for Fleetwood to become the first English Race to Dubai champion since Luke Donald in 2011.
All that being said, there’s a lot to play for this week and the permutations and scenarios are endless. Fleetwood is certainly in pole position but he has a few laps still to complete.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL RACE TO DUBAI RANKINGS PRESENTED BY ROLEX
