The Tips panel return this week with more expert insight ahead of events on both the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR.
Every week a panel of industry-leading golf tipsters and special guests preview the week’s betting markets, with the Porsche European Open and Memorial Tournament in the United States coming under the microscope.
Joining regular host Ollie Silverton this week are golf writer Dave Tindall, Sky Sports Golf Commentator Kit Alexander, and freelance golf writer Martin Matthews.
In his debut appearance on the DP World Tour’s official golf betting podcast, Matthews has singled out two players who he thinks have a good chance at the notoriously tough Green Eagles Golf Courses this week.
Despite being one of the longest tracks the Tour visits each season, all three panellists agreed that when you look at the list of previous winners, including Richard McEvoy and Marcus Armitage, winning around the Porsche Nord Course is far more about strategy and accuracy than distance.
“It’s a bit of a weird one because it has six par fives, and it would initially make you think that it would be a bombers paradise but one look at the history tells us that it’s not been,” said Matthews.
“It’s a bit of a red herring to look at the yardage,” agreed Tindall. “The stats down the years, the winners down the years have had better driving accuracy than distance.”
It is why Matthews has chosen Yannik Paul and Kiradech Aphibarnrat as his tips in the betting market.
“Yannik Paul has everything I’m looking for,” Matthews said of the German, who earned his first Tour victory in Mallorca at the end of last year.
“He’s a strategist and we are looking for strategy over bombing it this week. He got his first win on Tour in Mallorca the back end of last year, but he’s not rested on his laurels. He’s had a couple of runners-up this year, perhaps a little disappointing he didn’t get the job done in India, but he’s just kept it going. A week’s rest and he should be raring to go, and he was 18th here last year when he came in in no real great form. All of his stats tie in. He’s fourth on approach, eighth in greens, ninth tee to greens, 44th around the greens and 11th in scrambling.”
“Also, Kiradech Aphibarnrat. He’s obviously lost his way over the last couple of years but he’s starting to find his feet again and he’s had a really good couple of weeks: 15th in Belgium and fifth last week. He’s had two solid performances here off no form at all, whereas this year he comes in trending. He’s also up there on Tour in the scrambling stats and is known on Tour as a short game protagonist so I like he’s on the comeback trail.”
Adding context, host Silverton added that “He’s strokes gained machine. He’s ranked 22nd for approach, 13th tee to green, third around the green and in the top 20 for driving accuracy.”
On the other hand, Tindall opted for Joost Luiten and Dan Bradbury as ones with good odds this week.
“I’ve landed on Joost Luiten,” he said.
“Lots of top threes in his last seven or eight starts. A little bit disappointing last week at the KLM but he was still tied for 21st, and if you are looking for strokes gained off the tee then his numbers are really good. He was ranked fifth at the KLM, first in Korea off the tee and gained ten strokes tee to green. It will just come down to how his putter is this week. He played here a couple of years ago and was 11th so if you are looking at a player with decent course form, plenty of good recent form then he does what you need him to do at this course.
“Then look at history, first four winners were English. Dan Bradbury flickered at Dubai, then last three weeks he’s finished 32nd, 10th and 29th at the KLM Open. And recently his strokes gained off the tee numbers have been really good: fifth at the KLM, 15th in Soudal, sixth at the Italian Open.”
The Tipsters then moved on to the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, held at the Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village.
Silverton pointed out that often the best players come to the fore here, and that if you are going to look at statistics, the last six winners have been ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained tee to green at this course.
Jason Day ended a five-year winless drought at the Byron Nelson earlier this season, and Matthews doesn’t think he will have to wait much longer for another.
“When he wins, he wins in bunches,” Matthews explained.
“He lives close by, and while his record over the years isn’t great, course form doesn’t seem to be key to the winners. Six of the last eight had never had better than a 19th place before they won. Other Nicklaus courses do correlate and he’s a winner at Bay Hill. And he’s basically top 20 in every stat this season.”
“He’s having a resurgence, and is a two-time runner up here,” he said.
Meanwhile, Tindall pointed out Rickie Fowler, who is back inside the top 50 on the Official World Golf Ranking after a sixth-place finish last week.
He’s just come back into form, and it feels like he’s done the groundwork for something big.”
Find out more about why each guests made their picks, and what other players they mention on this week’s podcast, click here https://linktr.ee/dpworldtour
