By Will Pearson, europeantour.com
at Baltusrol
EuropeanTour.com has drilled down into the numbers to bring you this guide to the players we think might stand the best chance of doing well at this week’s US PGA Championship.
TOTAL FIELD SIZE: 156
Experience is a much vaunted quality in golf – and rightly so. Just look at The Open Championship, where five of the last six winners have been aged 39 or above. That trait doesn’t seem to hold as much significance when it comes to the year’s final Major, however, witheach and every winner of the US PGA in the last ten years aged between 23 and 37inclusive. Rory McIlroy was the youngest in that time at 23 in 2012, while YE Yang remains the oldest winner in the last decade at 37. For whatever reason, be it ‘the fairest test in Major golf’, or a deeper reserve of energy for the younger blood at the end of a busy period of golf, the average age of winner over the last ten years at the US PGA is sub-30. Therefore, at this point, we lose 46 players aged 38 or above.
Notable players cut: Henrik Stenson, Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 110
It seems the taste of victory has spurred many a recent US PGA winner on to victory over the last decade.Nine of the last ten victors had already won in the season leading up to their US PGA win. With that in mind, here we lose another 67 players without a victory to their name in 2016.
Notable players cut: Justin Rose, Graeme McDowell, Martin Kaymer
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 43
Again,nine of the last ten winners had registered at least one top ten finish in their two previous worldwide starts before winning the US PGA,so clearly coming into the week in good form has been key, too. Here, we lose 28 players without a top ten in their last two starts.
Notable players cut: Jason Day, Chris Wood, Bubba Watson
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 15
After the latest cull, just 15 players remain. Apart from Keegan Bradley in 2011 and YE Yang in 2009,each of the last ten winners had played at least ten Major Championships before triumphing at the US PGA. At this point we lose a further five players.
Notable players cut:Andrew Johnston, Brandon Stone, Jhonattan Vegas
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 10
They say that cream rises to the top and that’s been true at the US PGA over the last decade, witheight of the last ten winners ranked inside the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking when they prevailed. Of the ten players remaining in our statistical breakdown, two are currently ranked outside the top 25 in the world.
Players cut: Aaron Baddeley, Alex Noren
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 8
Previous tournament form seems to count for something, too, withseven of the last ten winners having previously registered a top ten finish at the US PGA prior to their win.
Players cut: Brand Snedeker, Charl Schwartzel
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 6
Just six names remain, with 150 on the cutting room floor. Looking back over the stats from the last ten years, we foundseven of the last ten winners had registered at least one top ten finish in the other three Majors in the same year as their US PGA victory.
Players cut: Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 4
Major form again rears its head when we note thatseven of the last ten winners had two or more finishes inside the top 20 in the year’s Major Championships before winningthe US PGA.
Player cut: Jordan Spieth
POTENTIAL WINNERS: 3
And then there were three – and what a three. From 156 players to just three contenders in eight statistical cuts.
The trio the stats suggest could well be hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday evening?
Maiden Major chaserSergio Garcia, US Open winnerDustin Johnsonand four-time Major champRory McIlroy.
There you have it. So, whether you’re picking yourFantasy Race to Dubaiside or playing theEuropean Tour Daily Fantasy game, make sure you have those three survivors on your radar because history suggests you won’t be too far off the mark.
