This week we return to the resort of Sun City in South Africa for the penultimate event of the season, the Nedbank Golf Challenge hosted by Gary Player.
With crucial Race to Dubai points up for grabs and places at the final event of the season, the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai, on the line, our stats guru has picked out three players worth keeping a close eye on this week.
Favourite: Sergio Garcia
Sergio Garcia comes into the final two events of the season in fine form. In the space of a month, he has finished in a tie for seventh place at the Portugal Masters, helped Team Europe win The Ryder Cup back and successfully defended the Andalucía Valderrama Masters, a tournament the Spaniard hosts.
Not only has the 2017 Masters Champion rediscovered the sort of form that has seen him win 15 European Tour events, he is also heading back to a course he has fond memories of, having finished 18 under par at the 2014 Nedbank Golf Challenge. The 38 year old boasts the best stroke average of any player in the field this week, at 69.25 from his 12 rounds here.
At 7,831 yards, the Gary Player Country Club is the longest golf course on the 2018 European Tour schedule and it traditionally suits players with strong approach games; both Branden Grace and Alex Noren, the last two winners of the event, finished in the top two in Greens in Regulation on their way to victory, despite finishing outside the top 35 in the Driving Accuracy stats.
That all bodes well for Sergio, a fine iron player, who currently ranks at 25th in the European Tour Strokes Gained statistics when it comes to approach play. With six sub-70 rounds in his last seven, don’t be too surprised if Garcia is competing for the title come Sunday afternoon.
Form horse: Branden Grace
It’s hard not to consider home favourite and defending champion Branden Grace as a real contender this week; he has finished fourth, third and first in his last three starts at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. The South African is 26 under par in his last 12 rounds here, so there is clearly something about the Gary Player Country Club that suits the 30 year old’s eye.
Grace will have great memories of this venue when he tees it up on Thursday, having found all 18 Greens in Regulation on the way to a winning final round of 66 last year. The eight-time European Tour winner excelled with his approach play in 2017, topping that category with 13.5 shots gained on the field in this important area.
Although he hasn’t hit the heights of previous seasons, he has finished in the top 30 in the last three Major Championships, and also finished tied for fifth at the first Rolex Series event of the 2018 season, at the BMW PGA Championship.
With the added bonus of some passionate home support, Grace looks set to be vying for a big finish to his season.
Wildcard: Danny Willett
Danny Willett returns to a happy hunting ground this week. The 2014 champion’s worst finish in three appearances at the Nedbank Golf Challenge is 11th in 2016. Willett’s victory four years ago saw the Englishman shoot 13 under par over the weekend, with the 31 year old gaining 17.8 shots on the field in rounds three and four.
The five-time European Tour winner has also gained 2.6 strokes on the field from his 12 rounds here. The Sheffield native leads in three other leading categories - bogey avoidance (1.8 per round), par 3 scoring and scrambling, where he has managed to get up-and-down 75% of the time.
Another reason Willett fans to be positive is the fact that his best three performances this season have all come in Rolex Series events – a tie for seventh in Turkey last week, a share of eighth at the Italian Open in June, and a tie for sixth at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open in July. Willett likes the big occasion, so will be confident he can perform well at Sun City again.
