The European Tour heads to the Middle East for the first time this season for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship presented by EGA.
Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson and Dustin Johnson are among those to join defending champion and last season's Race to Dubai winner Tommy Fleetwood at Abu Dhabi Golf Club. Traditionally this event is a tight contest, with ten of the previous 13 editions of the tournament ending in a one-shot victory. Fleetwood's narrow win last year came after the Englishman missed just six Greens in Regulation all week, the joint-best total from last season.
Our stats guru has combed through the rest of the key numbers to pick three players to back in the UAE.
Favourite: Rory McIlroy
He might not have teed it up on the European Tour since October last year, but a fully fit and highly motivated Rory McIlroy is a very exciting prospect, especially at a course where he excels. After missing last year’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship through injury, the Northern Irishman will be eager to add to his already impressive record at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, where he has finished among the top five seven times in his last eight appearances, while accumulating a score to par of 109 under par in the process.
Despite his brilliant record in Abu Dhabi, McIlroy is yet to win here having finished in second place four times. On top of the motivation of winning here for the first time, the 28 year old will also be striving for a good 2018 season, having endured an injury-plagued 2017 campaign. The four-time Major winner has not played since the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but will feel confident of excelling on a course that clearly suits his eye. In spite of his injury problems in 2017, he still managed to claim six top tens, including top sevens at the Masters Tournament and The Open Championship. If he finds his rhythm this week, he could be the man to beat.
Form horse: Martin Kaymer
Martin Kaymer might be making his first start on the European Tour since the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai, in November last year, but it’s hard to look beyond the German when it comes to form at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship, an event he won three times in four years from 2008 to 2011. The 33 year old is also a combined 127 under par over the last ten years at Abu Dhabi GC, which is 17 shots better than his nearest rival over that period of time. Kaymer has also posted three of his four European Tour tournament totals of 20 under par or better here, having finished 20 under in 2009, and 21 and 24 under respectively on the way to winning back-to-back titles at Abu Dhabi GC in 2010 and 2011.
Unsurprisingly some of the stats the two-time Major winner has returned in Abu Dhabi are as impressive as his record here, with Kaymer leading the birdies or better category (of players who have played 10 or more rounds here) at 27.6 per cent, and ranking highly in the Greens in Regulation category as well, having returned numbers of 76.3 per cent in that key area from his previous 11 appearances at the event.
By his own admission, Kaymer did not start his 2017 season particularly well, but he showed some glimpses of the sort of form that saw him win the Race to Dubai in 2010 towards the end of the campaign. Some players will see this week as a chance to get into the swing of the new season with a respectable finish – Kaymer however, always sees playing at Abu Dhabi GC as a chance to add to his 11 European Tour wins.
Wildcard: Ryan Fox
The longest driver on the European Tour in 2017, Ryan Fox will again have the chance to make the most of his powerful game at Abu Dhabi GC this week, a course which is well suited to the long hitters. Rory McIlroy, Thomas Pieters and Dustin Johnson have all performed well on the Peter Harradine-designed course in recent editions, with Fox finishing in a respectable share for 19th on his tournament debut last year. The New Zealander had an average Driving Distance of 318 yards last season and could use his renowned long game to put himself in contention this week.
The 30 year old made the most of his rookie year on tour, particularly in a three-week stretch in the summer that saw him finish with three top sixes in a row at the HNA Open de France, Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open and Dubai Duty Free Irish Open hosted by the Rory Foundation. Although he played significantly more than in 2016, his numbers were vastly improved, reducing his scoring average from 73.66 to 70.91 and his Greens in Regulation from 62.70 to 72.66. The man from Auckland looks well and truly at home on tour and could be in line to sneak under the radar this week.
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