The 2015 Race to Dubai is just seven events old yet we have already witnessed an abundance of holes in one. Ahead of this week’s True Thailand Classic presented by Black Mountain, europeantour.com asks why?
With four aces registered at last week's Maybank Malaysian Open, the season tally already sits at 12 through just 28 rounds played – a diamond dozen of pin-point efforts in little more than two months.
Paul Waring, Grégory Bourdy, Jake Higginbottom and Thongchai Jaidee were the latest players to be left footing the bar bill in the clubhouse of the Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club having each hit their version of the perfect shot last week in the Malaysian capital.
In the first event of the Desert Swing, too, a quartet of holes in one were carded at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship as Tom Lewis and Byeong-hun An were joined by Miguel Angel Jimenez and Rory McIlroy in the aces club in the UAE.
While two tournaments this season have already garnered four holes in one, the record for most aces in a single European Tour event remains at six – set at the 1991 Fujitsu Mediterranean Open – when Ireland’s Eamonn Darcy grabbed two.
But just how common has a European Tour hole in one become?
Last season we saw 35 aces made in 49 events -a ratio of one hole in one for every 2,143 par threes played, or 0.05 per cent. This season has seen a dramatic rise in probability.
Through seven events we have seen 12 holes in one which equates to one every 893 par threes played. The probability of a hole in one has increased from 0.05 per cent to 0.11 per cent, meaning so far players have been holing out at more than double the rate of last season.
Many odds are used in predicting the likelihood of an amateur hole in one. The probability ranges anywhere from one in 12,500 to one in 40,000. Typically, a professional golfer has around a one in 2,500 chance of making an ace. Therefore, the one in 893 trend we have seen thus far this season is most certainly noteworthy.
Holes in one, of course, often bring with them a wide and plentiful range of riches in terms of prizes on offer for a ‘Slam Dunk’.
In Abu Dhabi, Lewis walked away with a Cadillac Escalade worth US$90,000,there was a staggering $2.5million up for grabs for an ace at the par four 17th at the 2014 Dubai Desert Classic,but nothing can quite compare to the truly unique hole in one prize awarded to England’s Andy Sullivan,who earned the moniker ‘Spaceman’ for his effort at last year’s KLM Open.
But back to the point at hand, are we on course for a record year of holes in one?
The answer, for now, is yes. In the 2006 European Tour season there were a record 39 holes in one. If the 2015 trend continues at the same rate – perhaps somewhat unlikely - we could be on course for a staggering 81 holes in one by the end of the DP World Tour Championship and the conclusion of The 2015 Race to Dubai.
Only time will tell, but until then, keep a look out for the "HOLE IN ONE ALERT" onTwitter.
